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A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were a sign or the source of Villa's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, however, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star curled home his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding in many games, while the wins have accumulated.

According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear strangely fragile – yet at the moment the margins are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.

The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.

This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.